A depression over the Southeast Arabian Sea south of Porbandar in Gujarat is likely to move northwestward and intensify into a cyclone, the India Meteorological Department said on Tuesday, June 6, 2023.
The Met Office in a bulletin said the depression was located about 920 km west-southwest of Goa, 1,120 km south-southwest of Mumbai, 1,160 km south of Porbandar and 1,520 km south of Karachi, Pakistan at 5:30 am.
“It is likely to move almost northwards over East-Central Arabian Sea and adjoining Southeast Arabian Sea during the next 24 hours and intensify into a cyclonic storm,” it said.
The IMD said on Monday, June 5 that the formation of a low pressure system over the Southeast Arabian Sea and its intensity is expected to critically affect the progress of the monsoon towards the Kerala coast.
The Meteorological Department, however, has not given any tentative date for the arrival of monsoon in Kerala.
Monsoon begins in Kerala on June 8-9: Skymet
Private forecasting agency Skymet Weather said monsoon may start in Kerala on June 8 or June 9 but it is expected to have a “mild and mild entry”.
“These strong weather systems over the Arabian Sea spoil the advance of deep inland monsoons. Under their influence, the monsoon currents may reach coastal areas but will struggle to penetrate beyond the Western Ghats,” it said.
Skymet had earlier forecast the onset of monsoon in Kerala on June 7 with an error margin of three days.
“The Southwest Monsoon is likely to fall within this bracket. The initiation criteria require two consecutive days of rainfall over Lakshadweep, Kerala and coastal Karnataka. Accordingly, the spread and intensity of rainfall on June 8 or 9 matches this requirement. However, the onset of the annual event is strong. And may not sound. It may just make a gentle and mild entry to begin with,” the non-governmental weather forecasting agency said.
The Southwest Monsoon generally enters Kerala on June 1 with a standard deviation of about seven days. In mid-May, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said that monsoons are likely to arrive in Kerala by June 4.
The Southeast Monsoon reached the southern state last year on May 29, June 3, 2021, June 1, 2020, June 8, 2019 and May 29, 2018.
A slight delay in Kerala does not mean that the monsoon will arrive late in other parts of the country, say scientists. It also does not affect the total rainfall of the country during the season.
India is expected to receive normal rainfall during the southwest monsoon despite El Nino conditions, the IMD said earlier.
Normal to below normal rainfall is expected over Northwest India. The eastern and northeastern, central and southern peninsulas are expected to receive 94-106 percent of normal rainfall with a long period average of 87 cm.