• Wed. Feb 28th, 2024

Rain and thunder will arrive here

Rain and thunder will arrive here

As June’s roller coaster of weather continues this week, showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible for parts of the Bay Area Monday evening and into Tuesday morning.

Weather models expect minor thunder and lightning from isolated thunderstorms to be scattered across the Bay Area. This unusual pattern will persist for most of Tuesday, although a few areas will clear by late afternoon.

June Boom

A depression that started in Southern California started a branch of thunderstorms around Big Sur on Monday afternoon. The same system will lead the next storm to the Bay Area Monday night and Tuesday morning.

Weather models are calling for showers from the Sacramento Valley to parts of the South Bay and Santa Cruz Mountains after 10pm Monday. Some of these showers may also carry a charge, meaning brief flashes of lightning will not be an issue for parts of the East Bay, South Bay and Santa Cruz Mountains.

The European Climate Model’s outlook for available energy in the air over the Bay Area on Tuesday, forecasting 90 to 130 joules of energy per kilogram over parts of the San Francisco Bay Area and Peninsula.


Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected to form in the Sacramento Valley by Tuesday morning, contributing to more unsettled weather reaching parts of the East Bay and Peninsula.

The National Weather Service and several morning runs from North America and high-res Rapid Refresh weather models indicate a 20% chance of thunderstorms in the Bay Area thanks to steady air flow from the ocean layer on Tuesday. Tuesday morning, down from the 45% chance given in Monday’s forecast.

Energy is still in the air for an isolated thunderstorm to develop on Tuesday.

Most climate models indicate a fair amount of convective potential energy, also known as CAPE – a measure of how much energy the atmosphere can get to raise a thunderstorm. Models predict 90 to 130 joules of energy per kilogram of air over San Francisco Bay and the Sacramento Valley; This amount is close to the amount of energy available two weeks ago when a small thunderstorm formed in Lake County.

Thunder is out of the question for Diablo Range and inland towns like Walnut Creek. Some of these thunderstorms travel up the peninsula as a wave of energy, causing occasional lightning over San Francisco Bay.

There is a risk of precipitation redeveloping in the Santa Cruz Mountains, although they may die out quickly as much of the atmospheric energy is predicted to settle in water. Any rainfall in some isolated areas will be only one-hundredth to one-tenth of an inch. Tuesday morning looks to be the most active weather in the Bay Area.

Once the sun starts to break through the clouds by Tuesday afternoon, expect most of the showers and thunderstorms to clear with a few lingering showers in the Santa Cruz Mountains and some coastal foothills. Calm, sunny conditions are likely to return to nearly the entire Bay Area by sunset.

Outage on Tuesday

San Francisco: A few thunderstorms may develop around the Embarcadero, Hunters Point and Golden Gate Bridge on Tuesday morning, with the potential for lightening along with scattered showers along the coast. The air over the city will feel a mix of winter and June gloom by Tuesday afternoon as light rain and drizzle continue to hit the slopes of Twin Peaks, Billy Goat Hill and Mount Davidson. That said, warm, humid air is likely to push daytime highs into the mid-60s in downtown and most neighborhoods east of the Sutro Tower, while areas in the low 60s are to the west.

The rain clouds will begin to gradually clear by Tuesday evening, while the normal upwelling and flow of the ocean layer will begin after sunset. Look for some foggy conditions underwater overnight, with a slight chance of some fog coming ashore. Overnight lows are usually in the mid-50s.

Pacific Coast and Peninsula: Motorists along the Highway 1, I-280 and Highway 101 corridors will want to watch for slippery conditions during their Tuesday morning commute. Coastal areas experience light showers and isolated thunderstorms, with most of the unsettled weather lasting through the afternoon. Fortunately, much of the unsettled weather is set to stay off the coast, leading to an occasional light show in the western sky.

Mostly cloudy skies are likely throughout Tuesday as light rain and showers persist over the Santa Cruz Mountains. Residents near Lake San Andreas, Emerald Hill and the Portola Valley could hear thunder at times in the morning as residual showers broke up in the valley. Look for daytime highs in the 60s along the coast and San Bruno Gap, and Millbrae and communities east of the I-280 corridor can expect highs in the 60s. Some cities, like Menlo Park and Redwood City, can break 70 as warm, moist air sweeps up the peninsula.

#Rain #thunder #arrive

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