• Fri. Dec 8th, 2023

Cracking the code of earthquake prediction – Transcontinental Times

Cracking the code of earthquake prediction – Transcontinental Times

France: In recent years, earthquakes have been a growing concern due to their devastating impact on communities around the world. While current earthquake early warning systems are effective at providing limited notice, a groundbreaking study by French scientists Quentin Blettery and Jean-Mathieu Noquet could revolutionize earthquake forecasting.

Their research, conducted at the French Côte d’Azur University and the Institut de Physique du Planet in Paris, focuses on detecting earthquakes using GPS data hours before they occur.

Limitations of current earthquake warning systems

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Before going into the research findings, let us briefly discuss the current state of affairs Earthquake Warning systems. These devices can currently only provide a short warning window, less than two minutes before an earthquake strikes.

In some unfortunate cases, warnings are issued only three to five seconds after the earthquake begins. Although these early warning systems have undoubtedly saved lives, their inability to predict earthquakes in advance remains a challenge for the scientific community.

Earthquake Prediction: A Holy Grail in Seismology

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Predicting earthquakes has long been an elusive goal for scientists around the world. Earthquakes cannot be accurately predicted because they are inherently unpredictable natural events.

Instead, existing methods rely on observations of past earthquakes and ongoing seismic activity within an area to estimate the probability of future seismic events.

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However, this approach allows detection of ground motion only after an earthquake has started, limiting the effectiveness of early warning systems.

A Glimpse of Hope: Antecedent Fault Phase Slip

The research by Blattery and Noquet offers a glimmer of hope in the field of earthquake prediction. They found critical fore-fault phase slip starting about two hours before the earthquake. This observation could potentially be used for earthquake warning systems in the future.

To come to this groundbreaking conclusion, the duo carefully analyzed data from more than 90 earthquakes with a magnitude greater than 7 that occurred in the past two decades. They focused on GPS records for the 48 hours before each of these earthquakes to identify patterns and trends.

Understanding the precursor phase

As Noquet explains, earthquakes are caused by sudden slip along faults that separate tectonic blocks. The precursor phase is the time window during which these tectonic blocks begin to move relative to each other, initially slowly and then gradually accelerating until they reach rapid sliding speeds.

Seismic waves generated by this rapid sliding cause the destructive impact seen in large earthquakes.

Signs of construction activity

The research findings revealed an intriguing pattern: In the first 46 hours before the earthquake, the GPS records showed no significant activity.

However, in the two hours before the earthquake, there were clear signs of increased activity along the fault zones. This indicated that a gradual and undetectable slip occurred between the tectonic plates that began about two hours before the earthquake.

The catch: making accurate predictions

Although the detection of antecedent fault phase slip holds great promise, there is a catch. Blattery points out that current GPS systems lack the sensitivity to make accurate predictions based on the parameters of the study.

Current GPS sensors can only detect movements at a scale that allows analysis with large datasets compiled in research, but they cannot provide accurate detections at individual sites. To achieve accurate predictions, GPS sensors capable of detecting movements down to 0.1 mm are required.

The Path Ahead: Advancing Technology and Collaboration

Despite the challenges, the findings from Blattery and Noquet’s research open new avenues for improving earthquake prediction systems.

The seismology community can build on this foundation and work to develop more sensitive GPS sensors that can accurately measure slow-slip accelerations.

Additionally, collaboration between scientists and technologists can lead to innovations in earthquake detection technology, enabling us to better understand and predict earthquake events.


In conclusion, the ground-breaking research of French scientists Quentin Bletary and Jean-Mathieu Noquet offers a glimmer of hope in the quest for earthquake prediction.

By identifying an earlier fault phase slip that occurs approximately two hours before an earthquake, this study opens up possibilities for advancing early warning systems.

Although challenges remain, including the need for more sensitive GPS sensors and adequate technology in earthquake-prone areas, the ability to predict earthquakes in advance brings us one step closer to protecting communities from the devastating impact of these natural disasters.

  • A mechanical engineering graduate, he writes on science, technology and sports, teaches physics and mathematics, has played cricket professionally and is passionate about bodybuilding.

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