Adding to the existing delay in the onset of monsoon in Kerala, a cyclone is likely to form over the Arabian Sea on Wednesday, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said. its intensity, Location of Formation in Arabian Sea And the subsequent movement may affect the onset of Southwest Monsoon over Kerala.
The prevailing system rapidly intensified from a cyclonic circulation to a low pressure by Monday evening. By Tuesday morning, it had strengthened into a depression and was positioned over the southeast Arabian Sea. It is currently located 920 km west-southwest of Goa, 1,120 km south-southwest of Mumbai, 1,160 km south of Porbandar and 1,520 km south of Karachi, Pakistan. According to the cyclone track forecast, it is heading northwards towards Pakistan and will not affect the west coast of India.
According to the latest IMD update, this system is likely to move almost northward and intensify into a cyclonic storm over the east-central Arabian Sea and adjoining southeast Arabian Sea during the next 24 hours. If the cyclone becomes a cyclonic storm, the cyclone will be identified as Cyclone Biparjoy, the name given by Bangladesh.
In 2021, Cyclone Yas formed during the onset of monsoon.
This will be the second cyclone to form in the North Indian Ocean in three weeks. Cyclone Mocha, formed in the Bay of Bengal, entered Bangladesh and Myanmar causing widespread destruction.
Although several favorable factors brought the monsoon to Kerala’s doorstep, the monsoon has not yet gained enough strength to continue its advance over the mainland, IMD officials said on Monday.
“Since a week, the conditions are favorable for the progress of monsoon. Satellite images have consistently shown cloud formation along the Kerala coast and intensification of monsoon,” said a senior IMD official.
The normal date of onset of monsoon in Kerala is June 1 this year, the IMD said, with a four-day standard deviation likely to begin on June 4.
“As of now, the monsoon is still within the acceptable onset date, but there are several uncertainties associated with it. The development of a cyclone will not augur well for the progress of the monsoon,” the official added.
One of the possible reasons for the weak monsoon after the first week of June is due to insufficient land heating during the ongoing summer season.
“Last month there was less heat wave as there were several rains influenced by western depression. The required land heating to favor the monsoon has not been recorded,” said the meteorologist.
Since 2005, Kerala had the most delayed onset of monsoon on June 8, IMD’s monsoon onset data revealed.