The recent regulatory breach hasn’t deterred Wall Street asset managers like BlackRock, Fidelity and Invesco from applying to list spot bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded funds (ETFs), with experts now estimating a 50% chance of approval.
Leading the race to launch the ETF are Cathy Wood’s ARK Invest and 21Shares, which is seeking to list the product on the CBOE exchange under the ticker ARKB.
According to Bloomberg Intelligence, the deadline to approve or reject the listing is January 10, 2024, and multiple deadlines have been extended before then.
The BlackRock-sponsored ETF is one that has brought renewed optimism that a spot ETF will be approved, with a deadline of March 15 of the same year.
50-50 chance of approval
Notably, Bloomberg’s own ETF analysts now estimate that there is a 50-50 chance that the SEC will approve a spot Bitcoin ETF.
“The SEC has rejected such proposals for years, but its recent call for more details indicates a greater willingness to engage with applicants,” Bloomberg Intelligence ETF analyst James Seyfart wrote in a recent article. Update.
BlackRock ETF Filing Boosts Bitcoin
BlackRock’s June 16 filing of its ETF application with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has already led to a huge rally for Bitcoin, although there has been no confirmation or even indication from the SEC that the application will be approved.
Instead, traders appear to be betting that BlackRock, a Wall Street heavyweight with deep political ties, has enough clout in Washington to get its application approved, regardless of past denials.
Since June 16, the spot price of Bitcoin is now up nearly 22%, from less than $25,600 on the day of the filing to $31,300 today, indicating just how bullish the ETF filing from the firm is looking at the market.
Experts predict a positive outcome
Earlier this month, Sui Chung, CEO of crypto index provider CF Benchmark, revealed that he was “very optimistic” about the SEC approving a spot bitcoin ETF with all the new filings now on the table.
“We’re very optimistic that we’ll get the SEC’s approval because the SEC has consistently stated that they want certain safeguards in place,” Chung said, pointing to information-sharing agreements between listing exchanges and crypto exchanges as a key. protection
“That bar is very clear, and we believe the bar has been met by the conditions we’ve all put together,” the CF Benchmark CEO added, referring to agreements between Coinbase and major asset managers on market monitoring.
Meanwhile, Grayscale CEO Michael Sonnenschein also recently said he was optimistic about a spot bitcoin ETF approval.
“Today we have a market of ETFs based on multiple Bitcoin futures. (…) At Grayscale, we have been preparing for a long time for a marketplace of multiple spot bitcoin ETFs,” he said in a Bloomberg TV interview:
“When I really zoom out and look at how much progress has been made (…) I think we’re at a pivotal moment.”